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Who's gonna lead cellular growth at Christmas ?


Brazil finished October with 96.6 million cellulars and density of 51.62 cell/100 inhab. Still it lacks 3.4 million to Brazil surpass 100 million cellulars, which might happen in December. In 2005, the Net Add in the last months was 5 million cellulars.



Cellulars Net Add in Oct/06 has been just 771 thousand cellulars, the expectation is a growth in December because of the operation of Vivo's GSM network. Depending on the size of activated network in 2006 more will be the competition and cellular growth.


Vivo needs to complete it GSM network in as soon as possible to grow and not lose the leadership to Tim. The activation of this netwotk, however, must be done very carefully. One of the differences of Vivo has been the quality of its network. The activation of GSM network in areas where couldn't be possible to guarantee a good quality as CDMA network, could bring some problems to the operator. Even being well projected, a new network could present some problems that must be identified and eliminated. Another situation to Vivo is the joint of the systems and CDMA network in this new GSM plataform.



According to the situation, what is expected is the offer of Vivo's GSM to be focus in pre-paid clients, using to advantage the cost of GSM supplies in relation to the CDMA technologies. A more agressive offer to clients will be in 2007 after the initial fase of GSM network in operation.


Vivo is getting ready to grow in December. It already promoted a revision of service prices to be close to the others in the market, correcting, for example, the SMS the reduction was 40%. According to Ucel avaluation, Christmas's promotions presented by Vivo in November were, with Claro, more agressive than Tim (More details at Ucel's site ).


The first signals were the datas, with Christmas's promotions starting before November 20th. The adjustments of the promotions in the end of the season, the week before Christmas day, will be more aggressive, although will result in a growth of cellular's number and churn.


The competitive environment will bring, in January more clients.


By the datas presented in the last 12 months, isn't expected that Vivo turn to be the operator with highest Net Add at Christmas. Remember that Vivo fights for a market even minor than Tim and Claro, being out of Notheast and Minas Gerais, States that have presented the highest growth tax in 2006.



Note: Vivo finished with 1.8 milion cellulars in Jun/06.


Tim is the favorite to lead cellular growth in Dec/06, as it happened in 2005 when it presented Net Add of 1.2 million and Claro 0.7 million.


Claro reduced it growth rhythm in the last months (more details), but can surprise at Christmas. The commercial strategy of the company has been focus in growth and dates, for example Christmas and Mother's Day through agressive promotions.


In relation to the others, the expectation focus on Oi's behavior that has decreased the growth in the last months.





According to the table above you could ask:


  • Who's gonna lead the growth of cellulars net adds at Christmas?
  • Will cellular growth surpass 5 million in November and December?
  • Could the sale's negotiation of Tim harm the operator performance in the end of this year ??
  • What will be the extension of GSM network in 2006?









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