24/04/2007


Net Adds and cellular exportations in decrease

 

Brazil finished March 2007 with 102.1 million cellulars and density of 54.25 cell/100 inhab (Anatel's preliminary data).

 

March had the same decreasing growth of January and February, with net adds of 966 thousand cellulars. January and March had net adds inferior to Argentina which has 1/3 of the cellulars of Brazil and density of 81 cell/100 inhab (more detail). In March Japan was surpassed by Brazil in Dec/06, and had net adds of 1,091 thousand cellulars, superior to Brazil.

 

Cellulars net adds in 1Q07 was 2,234 thousand cellulars, the lowest one since 2003.

 

Note: Cellulars Net Adds referred to the increase in the base of active cellulars in the operators and cell phone exportations to the quantity of cell phones exported.

 

The 1st quarter is usually the lesser cellular growth in the year, Teleco still projects net adds of 12.5 million cellulars in 2007. This result will depend on Vivo with GSM will get back its growth.

 

Exportations Decrease

 

The quantity of exported cell phones by Brazil in 1Q07 (5.6 million) was 22% lesser than in the 1Q06. This decrease happened, even the growth being 13.1% in the total of cellulars exported in the same period (more details). The participation of the quantity of cell phones exported by Brazil in the world's total of cellulars decreased from 3.2% in 1Q06 to 2.2% in 1Q07.

 

Venezuela, Argentina and United States are the main destinations of cell phones exportations of Brazil responding for 71% of these exportations.

 

Quantity of exported cell phones

 

Thousands
1Q06
1Q07
Growth
Argentina
1,360
1,489
9.5%
United States
1,619
1,339
-17.3%
Venezuela
1,511
1,171
-22.5%

 

The exportations to European Union fell from 181 million in 1Q06 to 33 million in 1Q07, cause Brazil doesn't produce 3G cell phones yet.

 

You could also notice a tranference of the exportations from Zona Franca in Manaus to São Paulo, caused by a decrease of Nokia's exportations and Samsung's production to São Paulo.

 

Quantity of exported cell phones per State

 

thousands
1Q06
1Q07
Growth.
Amazonas
2,910
445
-85%
São Paulo
4,221
4,979
18%
Others*
141
222
57%
Total
7,272
5,646
-22%

* Reexportation and not declared

 

You could ask:

  • The low growth of cell phones and the decrease of exportations of the 1Q07 will repeat in the other quarters of 2007?
  • Will Vivo have significant growth in 2Q07?
  • What will be Brazil's cellular growth in 2007?
  • Brazil is losing space as exporting region of cell phones? Why?
  • Will the entrance of Unicel in São Paulo impact cell phones growth in 2007? And a possible sale of Telecom Italia to Telefonica or América Móvil?

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