07/24/2007


Claro leads the 2Q07, Will Vivo keep leadership?

 

Brazil ended the 1st semester of 2007 with 106.7 million cellulars and density of 56.45 cell/100 inhab.

 

After 1st quarter of low growth, with net adds of 2.2 million cellulars, cellular had a stronger growth rhythm in the 2nd quarter of 2007 (Q207), with net adds of 4.5 million cellulars.

 

Net adds of 6.7 milllion in the 1st semester of 2007 are superior to the 1st semester of 2006 (5.5 million) and match with Teleco's projections net adds 12.5 million cellulars for 2007.

 

Claro led cellular growth in the 2nd quarter of 2007 (Q207) with net adds of 1.64 million cellulars.

 

 

Vivo was the newness of Q207. It had net adds of 1.2 million cellulars in the quarter, the greaters of the last 2 years. GSM, in 2,250 cities, was responsible for 84% of the total activations. More than 3.3 million devices sold by Vivo in 2007 are GSM.

 

Vivo, in Jun/07, exceeded 30 million cellulars (30.2 million). Its ARPU kept steady in R$ 29.9 in Q207, but EBITDA Margin and the damage had gotten worse in relation to the Q107 (more details). Tim ended semester with 27.5 million cellulars and Claro with 26.3 million.

 

Vivo with net adds in the same level of Tim and Claro, it's more difficult to be exceeded in market share by these operators in 2007. In the end of June/07, the difference between Vivo and Tim were 2.7 million cellulars and between Vivo and Claro 3.9 million.

 

This situation could be different if Claro acquired Telemig and Amazônia Celular which had 4.8 million cellulars in Jun/07.

 

Vivo, Tim and Claro were responsible for 89% of the cellulars net adds in Q207. Oi had net adds of 276 thousand cellulars and BrT 133 thousand cellulars.

 

As Teleco had foreseen, in the last months Oi lost leadership in Region I because of low growth. Tim assumed leadership in Region I in Jun/07 with 13.77 million cellulars against 13.63 million of Oi.

 

You could ask:

  • Will Vivo keep its cellular leadership in Brazil? Will it be exceeded by Claro or Tim?
  • Who's gonna buy Telemig and Amazônia Celular?
  • Why Oi lost its leadership to Tim in Region I?
  • how's gonna be Churn in Q307?

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