08/15/07


Telecommunication sector: Is 2007 being better than 2006?

 

The year 2007 started slow, with low cellular growth, but it has been changing since May, at least to the operators, is being better than 2006.

 

The 1st semester of 2007 Cellular, Broad Band and Pay TV had from Jan-Jun/07 net adds better than Jan-Jun/06.

 

Note: Fixed : concessionaires accesses

 

Even on fixed telephony, where the quantity of fixed accesses in service of the concessionaires is decreasing, the reduction from Jan-Jun/07 was lesser than the same period of 2006.

 

The same situation happens when it is analysed the gross revenue of these operators. The services: Cellular, Broad Band and Pay TV presented revenue growth, while fixed telephony (local and long distance) presented a little reduction.

 

* Fixed Telephony , Broad Band and data referred to revenue Telemar (Oi), BrT, Telefonica and Embratel with these services.

 

The operators can also improve their profit in 2007 as you can see by the evolution of EBITDA margin of fixed telephony operators, cellular and Pay TV (Net/Vivax).

 

 

If the year is being good for the operators, the same doesn't happen with suppliers. Abinee predicted R$ 16.2 billions the earning of the year in telecommunication industry against R$ 16.7 billions in 2006. This decrease is because of some reductions of investments of operators and exportations. Teleco predicts that the investments of fixed and cellular telephony operators in the 1st sem/07 were 16% lesser than 1st sem/06. In this time exportations decreased 20% because of cell phone exportations decrease (more details).

 

In the beginning of the year, Teleco listed What to follow in 2007. Some of the subjects pointed on the commentary had a solution in the 1st sem/07. Others, still wait a definition.

 

Main facts from Jan-Jul/07:

  • The entrance of Vivo's GSM network so the operator can compete with Tim and Claro resulting in cellular growth in Brazil.
  • Entrance of Telefonica in Telecom Italia's group of control, blocking the possibility of Tim to be purchased by Claro in Brazil.
  • Sale of Telemig and Amazônia/Celular fo Vivo.
  • Sale of Telecom Italia's participation in BrT to Pension Funds, ending the long period of competition about the control of the operator.
  • The change in the tariff from pulso to minute in local fixed-fixed calls of the fixed telephony concessionaires.
  • Anatel approved the joint venture of Net with Vivax and the acquisition of TVA by Telefonica.

What to follow in the 2nd sem/07:

  • Tender of 3G frequencies and the rest of SMP
  • Tender of Wimax frequencies
  • Possible joint venture Oi and BrT
  • The changes in telecommunication legislation in discussion on National Congress
  • Entrance of the first 3G systems (WCDMA) and Digital TV in São Paulo
  • Will Portugal Telecom its participation in Vivo to Telefonica?
  • Will Unicel get in operation in 2007?

You could ask:

  • Is the year 2007 being better than 2006?
  • What will be the reaction of América Móvil Group to the last investments of Telefonica in Brazil? Will Claro exceed Tim in market share?
  • Will cellular density reach 60%?
  • Will the industry sale more than R$ 12 millions in 2007?

 

 

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