09/04/07


How's Brazil goin to end 2007?

 

The following graphic presents Teleco's predictions: Cell Phones quantity, Fixed Telephones in service, Broad Band accesses and Pay TV subscribers to December 2007.

 

 

Cell Phones

 

In the beginning of the year Teleco's prediction was Net Adds 12.5 million cell phones in 2007, (more details), was changed on Aug/07. Teleco predicts that Brazil will end 2007 with 115 million cell phones and density superior to 60 cell/100 inhab.

 

After cell phone's low growth in the first quarter, cell phone has grown in the 2nd quarter (Q207) with the entrance in operation of Vivo's GSM network.

 

 

The growth continued good on July/07 when Oi had strong growth, leading net adds of the month (more details).

 

If the promotions continue like this, it's possible net adds exceed the 15 million in the end of this year, predicted by Teleco. In the last 12 months (Jul/07-Jul/06) total 15.5 million cell phones.

 

This situation was great for cell phones exportation. It was bigger on Jun/07 and Jul/07 than Jun/06 and Jul/06.

 

Fixed Telephones

 

The quantity of fixed accesses in service should decrease during 2007. The decrease on fixed accesses in service of concessionaires is being compensated by authorized accesses growth.

 

Fixed Accesses in Service

 

Millions
2005
2006
Q207
Total
39.8
38.8
38.7
Concessionaires
37.6
35.7
35.6
Authorized
2.2
3.1
3.2

 

The decrease on fixed accesses in service could be bigger than predicted if the concessionaires decide to clean its subscribers base with other resources. Brazil Telecom, for example, had 228 thousand blocked accesses in service in Q207.

 

Broad Band

 

Teleco predicts to 2007 net adds of 1.9 million superior to 1.8 million of 2006. The growth must speed up in the 2nd semester. In the 1st semester/07 Broad Band presented net adds of 762 thousand accesses against 835 thousand in the 1st semester/06.

 

With growth decrease of operators networks of fixed telephony and cable TV and wireless solutions (3G and Wimax) is the option to expand broad band usage in Brazil.

 

 

Pay TV

 

 

Pay TV in Brazil has been growing since 2004 specially because of cable tv operators Net and Vivax. In 2007 Pay TV via Satellite (DTH) also helped the growth after Sky and DirecTV joint venture.

 

 

You could ask:

  • Do you agree with Teleco's predictions?
  • What will be the impact of 3G in these predictions
  • And what about Christmas ?
  • Children's holiday will also be the day of cell phone with MP3 and camera?

 

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