Will Brazil end 2007 with 120 million cell phones?
Brazil ended the 3rd quarter of 2007 (Q307) with 112.8 million cell phones and density 59.47 cell/100 inhab.
Net adds of 6.1 million cell phones in the quarter, the best data since Q405 (6.2 million).
Cell phone's growth in 2007 has been increasing since 2nd quarter (Q207) with the entrance of Vivo's GSM in operation. The following graphic shows that Vivo spent 4 quarters in a roll without growth. From Q206 when cleaned its base and announced the implantation of its GSM network until Q107.
Oi had similar behavior when decided to stop the allowance of pre-paid cell phones since Q206. Oi grew in the Q307 with "ligador" advertisement which offers R$ 100 bonus to Oi's fixed or cell phones calls R$ 5 recharge.
The following figure shows Vivo and Oi's decreasing growth of these operators in the last 12 months, while Tim and Claro kept up their net adds.
Vivo and Oi's decreasing net adds growth in Brazil.
Brazil ended 2006 with 99.9 million cell phones and and expect low gorwth to 2007. Teleco's predictions in Jan/07 was net adds of 12.5 million cell phones in 2007. The entrance of Vivo's GSM network in operation sped up, cell phones growth in Brazil and Teleco review its prediction in Jul/07 to 15 million cell phones net adds in 2007.
With the actual situation Teleco's predictions indicates that this year net adds can reach 20 million cell phones. Brazil could end 2007 with 120 million cell phones and density 63 cell/100 inhab.
With growth acceleration, the production of cell phones in Brazil, which decreased 6.2% in the 1st semester of 2007 comparing to the same period of 2006 also has been growing. The production of devices in July/07 and Aug/07 was 15.9% and 20.6% better than 2006 (more details).
The growth of active cell phones quantity is being also followed by advertisements which stimulate its usage (minutes R$ 0.07). Claro grew 14.3% monthly usage minutes (MOU) of cell phones in Q307 compared to Q207.
Claro in 2007 has been growing more than Tim and could get Tim's 2nd position in 2008.
Tim had more net adds than Claro in Sep/07, which didn't happen since Mar/07. Tim's growth of Mar/07 seems to be an effort to end the quarter and it was followed by low growth in Apr/07. Soon it will be clear if this was a reaction of this operator. Tim grew more than other operators in the States Minas Gerais and Paraná with net adds 110 thousand and 55 thousand cell phones (more details).
You can ask:
- With how many cell phones will Brazil end 2007?
- Will Claro exceed Tim? When?
- How the entrance of Telefonica into Telecom Italia affects the situation?
- How 3G will affect cell phones growth in Brazil?
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