01/22/2008


What will be cellular growth in 2008?

 

Brazil ended 2007 with 121 million cell phones and density of 63.6 cell/100 inhab. Cell phones base grew 21.1% in the year with net adds of 21 million cell phones.

 

With this result Brazil continues to in 5th bewteen countries with more cell phones in the world and it's one of the leader countries in net adds in 2007.

 

This growth was achieved due to the growth record of the 3rd and 4th quarters (3Q07 and 4Q07) with net adds of 6.1 and 8.2 million cell phones, respectively.

 

 

The net adds of 2007 (21.1 million) exceeded 2005 (20.6 million) thanks to Vivo and Claro's growth. Tim, Oi and BrT in 2007 had lower net adds than 2005.

 

 

Teleco's predictions to 2008

 

According to Teleco's predictions Brazil should end 2007 with 141 million cell phones.

 

 

The net adds in 2008 must be similar to 2007. The following table presents the probable situation to 2008 predicted by Teleco:

 

Millions
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008 Prediction
Cell Phones
65.6
86.2
99.9
121.0
141
Net Adds
19.2
20.6
13.7
21.1
20
Growth
41.5%
31.4%
15.9%
21.1%
16.5%
% Pre-paid
80.5%
80.8%
80.6%
80.7%
81%
Density
(Cell/100 inhab.)
36.63
46.58
53.24
63.59
73.1*

* This density must grow with IBGE research about brazilian population in 2008.

 

The following situations must contribute to keep cell phone's growth in 2008:

  • The entrance of Oi in São Paulo and Vivo in the Northeast.
  • The implantation of 3G followed by wireless broad band offer through cell phone.
  • A agressividade mercadológica da Claro que liderou o crescimento do celular em 2007 e deve brigar pela 2ª colocação com a Tim em 2008.
  • The market aggressiveness of Claro which led cell phone growth in 2007 and must fight for the 2nd placement with Tim in 2008.

In 2008 Brazil will have 3 operators with national coverage (Tim, Vivo and Claro). This number can reach 4 in case of the joint venture between Oi and BrT:

  • What will be cellular growth in 2008? Do you agree with Teleco's predictions?
  • What could influence cellular growth in 2008?
  • What would be the effect of a macroeconomic deterioration conditions in Brazil, according to a global crisis, in these projections?
  • Will Claro surpass Tim in market share in 2008?
  • Will the operators keep in 2008 the same strategies of 2007?
  • Will have new players between cell phone operators in 2008?
  • What will be the impact of numbering portability in the 2nd semester of 2008? How the behavior of churn will affect the market of cell phones devices?

 

 

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Workshop
(in portuguese)
Cellular Market Update

 

 

 

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