01/19/2009


Cellular growth was a record in 2008, and what about 2009?

 

Brazil finished 2008 counting more than 150.6 million cellulars and density of 79,2 cell/100 inhab.

 

The net adds of 29.7 million represent a new annual record.

 

 

 

 

The monthly net adds of 2008 overcame 2007 in all the months, except in December. The net adds of 3.6 million cellulars for Dec/08 were inferior than the 4.7 million for Dec/07. Contributed to this result, Oi's low performance in Dec/08 counting net adds of 85 thousand cellulars, against 1.5 million from Vivo and 1.4 million from Claro.

 

Claro led growth in the year by holding net adds of 8.5 million cellulars, it consolidated itself in the second position in market share.

 

 

 

 

We can observe that Claro continues in the leadership, even considering the incorporation of BrT with Oi.

 

2008 presented record cellular growth. However, what about 2009?

 

The factors which led to a record growth in 2008 continue to be present in 2009 (entrance of Oi in SP and Vivo in the Northeast, portability, 3G,...).

 

However, the international crisis is affecting telecom sector in a global level and induced to a fall in cellulars sales in 4Q08 (more details). The effects of this crisis start to be felt in Brazil, in lower intensity though.

 

In face of this climate, Teleco forecasts a reduction in the net adds for Brazil in 2009, dropping to a level of 25 million cellulars.

 

 

Note: These projections might be affected by modifications in the macroecomonomic due to a worse effect of the financial crisis over Brazil.

 

 

By this growth, Brazil would finish 2009 holding a density of 90 cell/100 inhab. getting close to Russian density.

 

 

Note: Brazilian density is counted by Teleco using new IBGE's population estimation data, released in 2008.

 

 

You could ask:

  • What will cellular growth in 2009? Do you agree with Teleco's forecast?
  • What may influence cellular growth in 2009?
  • What will be the effect in these forecasts if the Brazilian macroeconomic conditions get worse due to the global crisis?
  • Will Claro remains in the leadership in net adds in 2009?
  • Will operators keep in 2009 the same strategies adopted in 2009?
  • Will there be any new players among Brazilian cellular operators in 2009?
  • What will be the impact of number portability? How will churn performance affect the cell phone device market? What about 3G?
  • How do the incoporation of BrT by Oi changes this climate?

 

To send us a commentary, click on: teleco@teleco.com.br

 

Please let us know if you authorize the publication of your commentary.

 

 

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