07/20/2009


What's going to be the cellular growth in 2009?

 

Anatel's preliminary data indicates that Brazil ended the first semester of 2009 counting 159.6 million cellulars and density of 83.47 cell/100 inhab.

 

Cellular net adds in Jun/09 reached 2.1 and were inferior than the ones registered in Jun/08 (2.6 millions). Net adds presented bigger reduction in Region I (former Telemar).

 

 

Oi, which led cellular growth in the 1st semester of 2008, contributed for this result. The company is competing aggressively in Region II (owned by former BrT) and in Region III (São Paulo), where it started to operate in Sep/08.

 

Oi's growth helped to increase prepaid participation in the total of cellulars in Brazil, which reached 81.8% in Jun/09.

 

 

 

Net adds in the 1st semester of 2009 were lower than the ones gotten in 2008, superior than in 2007 though.

 

 

Teleco projected net adds of 25 million cellulars for Brazil in 2009. To reach this projection Brazil will have to present net adds of 16 million cellulars in 2nd semester of 2009.

 

The competitive environment in Brazilian cellular market seems to be enough to insure this result. Oi might continue to grow in an aggressive way in regions II and III, getting close to Tim.

 

Claro, which presented lower growth than usual in the 1st semester might get back to the growth track in an more aggressive way in the 2nd semester.

 

Crisis seems to be is staying behind and the net adds accumulated in the last 12 months count 26.4 million cellulars. Still, we can note that net adds in 2009 were affected by the cleaning in base of about 1 million cellulars promoted by Tim in Feb/09.

 

 

A crise parece estar ficando para trás e as adições líquidas acumuladas no últimos 12 meses somam 26,4 milhões de celulares. Note-se ainda que as adições líquidas de 2009 foram afetadas pela limpeza de base de cerca de 1 milhão de celulares promovida pela Tim em Fev/09.

 

 

You could ask:

  • What will be cellular net adds in 2009 in Brazil?
  • Is crisis affecting cellular growth in Brazil?
  • Will Oi surpass Tim in 2009?
  • Do Region III (São Paulo) tend to have bigger growth of prepaid cellulars?
  • How will the expansion of 3G coverage affect growth in the 2nd semester?

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