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11/30/2009 |
Performance in Christmas will have a decisive role in Tim's future
In the beginning of 2009 Tim promoted a restructuring and a cleaning of about 1 million in its mobile base.
The company established then a plan to recover market share and brand, based on the promotion of the use by Infinity service plans.
Indeed, Tim resumed growth in March with a share (stake) of 29% in net adds of the month.
In October, however, Tim's stake in the month net adds dropped to 14%, with net adds of 289 thousand mobile accesses.
High churn has been one of the main difficulties to the operator for keeping its growth pace. Tim's monthly churn in the third quarter reached 3.6%, what implies about 1.4 million cancellations by month.
Infinity plans are helping Tim to grow mainly in prepaid segment, though causing an increase of the minutes of use (MOU) which jams the network contributing to the rise of churn.
Tim isn't reaching growth in the postpaid segment also. The company closed 3Q09 with 6.3 million postpaid mobile accesses, 500 thousand less than those 6.8 million it had in 3Q08.
In face of this scenario, Tim, which counted 39.9 million mobile accesses in oct/09, established as target to close the year with 42 million mobile accesses.
Telecom Italia presented high debt and is losing clients and revenue in Italy. Tim Brasil is the Telecom Italia's bet for the growth of the group. Recently, the company sold its broadband operation in Germany for Telefonica and is negotiating the sale of its stake in Telecom Argentina. If Tim Brasil doesn't present the expected results its sale may once more be put on the table. Tim Brasil presented accumulated loss of R$ 98 million in the first 9 month of 2009.
You could ask:
- Will Tim close the year with 42 million mobile accesses?
- Will Telecom Italia resume the discussion about Tim Brasil's sale in 2010? Which would be the candidates?
- Will Tim reach growth in postpaid without investments in 3G?
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