Brazil is likely to surpass 100 cell/100 inhab. in 2010
Brazil closed 2009 holding density of 90.6 cell/100 inhab. (Anatel's preliminary data) and may is likely to surpass the mark of 100 cell/100 inhab. in 2010.
Despite de world crisis
Net adds of 23 million mobile accesses in 2009 were only inferior than the number of cellulars in 2008.
The growth could have been higher in 2009 if there weren't the financial crisis and the cleaning of 1 million mobile accesses promoted in Tim's base in the beginning of the year.
Monthly net adds gotten in 2009 overcame 2008's, only in May, July and December.
So, how will 2010 be?
The fact that the net adds of Dec/09 had surpassed Dec/08's, when the affects of the crisis were already felt, is a signal that it won't affect mobile growth in 2010.
The Brazilian mobile market continues to be competitive with 4 operators fighting the market all over the country.
In face of this scenario, Teleco estimates that Brazil will close 2010 counting 200 million mobile accesses, with net adds of 26 million cellulars and growth of 15% in the year.
In 2010, Brazil will join the group of countries with density higher than 100 cell/100 inhab. This group is composed by about 1/3 of the countries in the world, including Argentina, Chile, Venezuela and Uruguay in South America.
In this scenario the biggest part of operators' gross additions comes from other operators, what reinforces the importance of controlling churn and different strategies as mobile broadband offer (3G) and mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs).
You could ask:
- How will the mobile growth in 2010 be? Do you agree with Teleco's projections?
- Can the introduction of a new competitor, by the Band H auction, affect mobile growth in 2010?
- Will operators keep in 2010 the same strategies of 2009?
- Will MVNOs start to operate in Brazil in 2010?
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