Which company will lead mobile growth in 2010?
Vivo and Claro are the main candidates to lead mobile growth in 2010. Oi and Tim will have to present significant changes in their performances to be able to participate of this competition.
Vivo led mobile growth in 2009 and Claro in 2007 and 2008.
In 2009, Vivo conquered the leadership in net adds in December, when overcame Oi. Vivo and Claro usually have higher net adds, in comparison with Oi, in many celebration dates due to the sale of subsidized cell phones.
Vivo and Claro led mobile growth in the 2nd semester of 2009. Meanwhile Oi, which led mobile growth in the 1st semester with net adds of 3.9 million mobile accesses, fell to 2.2 million mobile accesses in the 2nd semester, result much lower than Vivo's (4.9 millions) and Claro's (3.9 millions) in the semester.
Oi's growth being sustained by São Paulo (region III) where the company got 80% of its net adds in the 2nd semester of 2009.
With a market share of 12% of the mobile accesses of the state (Dec/09), Oi is likely to face difficulties to keep this growth pace along 2010. Vivo surpassed Oi in São Paulo, in Dec/09, with net adds of 400 thousand mobile accesses, against 348 thousand (Oi's).
Oi is presenting low performance in region I, where the company can lose the leadership for Vivo in 2010. The difference which separates Vivo from Oi in this region fell from 4.4 million, in 2008, to 1.6 million, in 2009. Besides, Oi unable to accelerate its growth in region II and this situation may become even more delicate after Oi's decision to halt the integration with BrT while reviewing the terms of purchase of this operator.
Tim's performance is lower than Vivo's and Claro's and it is being affected by the difficulties faced by Telecom Italia (more details).
Vivo and Claro are following the same strategy with 3G investments, growth of post paid base and control of churn. These are some of the factors that put both operators in an advantageous position to lead mobile growth in 2010.
You could ask:
- Which company will lead mobile growth in 2010?
- Will Oi change its strategy in 2010?
- Will Oi continue to lead mobile growth in São Paulo in 2010?
- What will happen to Tim in 2010?
- Will Vivo and Claro continue to subsidize cell phones as growth strategy?
- Will MVNOs arrive in time to change the scenario of 2010?
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