03/02/2010


Vivo is the leader in Net Adds for the 5th consecutive month

 

Again, Vivo led mobile growth in Brazil, by having net adds of 711 thousand cellulars in January, 43.4% of the Brazilian total.

 

 

 

The net adds presented in Jan/10 by Vivo, Claro and Tim were higher than the ones gotten in Jan/09. This performance is a signal that the crisis was left behind and that net adds of 2010 are likely to surpass 2009's. The Brazilian total in Jan/10 (1.6 billion) was higher than in Jan/09 (1.3 million).

 

 

Oi was the only operator to present in January lower net adds, if compared with 2009. The company continues to register low performance in its region of origin (Region I), with net adds of -58 thousand mobile accesses, and inside BrT's region (Region II), with net adds of 22 thousand mobile accesses. Oi's growth accounts to São Paulo, where the company shared with Vivo the leadership in net adds in Jan/10.

 

Keeping the current trends, Oi can be surpassed by Vivo in Region I and close 2010 with market share lower than 20%.

 

Most part of Vivo's leadership in net adds over the last 5 months was a result of the low churn presented by the operator.

 

 

-
Monthly churn*
Cancellations
Net additions
Gross Additions
Vivo
2.5%
1,294
711
2,005
Claro
3.0%
1,332
406
1,738
TIM
3.8%
1,576
385
1,962
Oi+BrT
3.8%
1,370
132
1,502

* Vivo, Claro and Tim monthly churn in 4Q09 and Oi's in 3Q09.

 

If Tim's monthly churn in Jan/10 was 2.5%, like Vivo's, the company would have been the leader with net adds of 934 thousand mobile accesses. Tim launched in February some aggressive plans that can turn the company into the leader in gross additions. However, this won't be enough if the operator doesn't to reduce its churn.

 

By the cleaning in the cellular base, which was promoted one year ago, Tim learned that churn shouldn't be reduced with mild disconnexion criteria. The reduction of churn is linked with the improvement in service quality and growth in postpaid base. Tim's postpaid base in 4Q09 (6,452 thousands mobile accesses) was still lower than in 4Q08 (6,571).

 

 

You could ask:

  • Which operator will lead mobile growth in 2010?
  • Which operator will lead mobile growth in Fev/10?
  • Until when will Oi's growth continue to lower than other operator's?
  • What will happen to Tim in 2010?
  • Will Claro threaten Vivo again?

 

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Note: The opinions expressed in the published articles in this section are their authors' responsibility.

 

 

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