Can Telecom Italia's low performance inside Italy affect Tim Brasil?


Tim Brasil is showing significative improvement in its results in 2010, leading mobile growth in net adds in 3Q10 (more details).


Telecom Italia is facing a much different situation inside its domestic market. In the last 12 months the number of mobile and fixed accesses fell in Italy.




The same happened with revenue. The drop in fixed revenue wasn't bigger due to the inclusion of broadband revenue. A Telecom Itália had 9 million broadband accesses in Italy in 3Q09.





In Brazil, Telecom Italia has 53% more mobile accesses than in Italy and Tim Brasil's revenue already represents 17.3% of the operator's revenue. In 2011, Tim Brasil is likely to overpass Telecom Itália's mobile revenue in its domestic market.





In this scenario, it doesn't make sense for Telecom Itália to sell Tim Brasil (more details). The carrier is likely to reinforce its operations in Latin America now having the control of Telecom Argentina.


Telecom Itália's weakness inside Italy can, however, affect Tim Brasil's performance. The Brazilian market is expanding and investments in 3G are necessary in order to increase data revenue.


The growth in Tim's revenue is based on aggressive voice plans. In 3Q10, Tim's voice revenue increased 3.4% and data 2.7%.


According to Tim's bet "Voice is Gold" and is increasing the minutes of usage per user (MOU) with promotions. The company wants to end 2010 with MOU of 140 minutes.





Meanwhile, Tim's data revenue increases a little.





This scenario can get even more complicated next year with take integrations between Telefonica/Vivo and Claro/Embratel's fixed and mobile operations.


You could ask:

  • Will Telecom Italia sell Tim Brasil?
  • Is Telecom Itália in risk of being acquired for other operator in the future?
  • Will Telefonica continue to participate in Telecom Itália's control?
  • Is the voice market enough to guarantee the growth in Tim Brasil's revenue in the next years?




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