In Brazil, cellular might increase 13% in 2011
Anatel's preliminary data indicate that Brazil ended 2010 with 203 million mobile accesses and density reached 104.6 cell./100 inhab..
Net adds of 29 million cellulars in 2010 weren't superior only if compared with the ones gotten in 2008. The world financial crisis was responsible for the drop presented by the net adds in 2009.
It's interesting to observe that the records registered by the net adds in 4Q10 (11.4 million mobile accesses) and in Christmas month (5.3 millions) occurred after Brazil had surpassed the density of 100 cell./100 inhab. in Oct/10.
The competition between TIM and Claro for the second position in the market share ranking and Oi's net adds getting closer to other companies' were the facts that contributed for this result. This scenario is likely to be kept in 2011, helped by the beginning of Nextel's 3G operations in the second semester and MVNOs.
Teleco estimates that Brazil will end 2011 with 2011 com 233 million mobile accesses and desity of 118 cell./100 inhab.. Net adds might remain in the same level as 2008 and 2010 (30 million cellulars) and growth will continue to have two digits (13%).
The Brazilian mobile market is reaching maturity by registering density higher than 100 cell./100 inhab.. In this scenario most of the operators' gross adds come from other operators, what reinforces the importance of controlling churn and differentiated strategies such as mobile broadband promotions (3G) and mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs). Strategies for corporative market, mainly for small and medium companies (PME), will be important as well.
In 2010 postpaid accesses increase 18.0%, more than prepaid (16.3%), this performance might be repeated in 2011.
You could ask:
- How much will cellular grow in 2011? Do you agree with Teleco's projections?
- How can the beginning of Nextel's 3G operations affect mobile growth in 2011?
- Will operators keep in 2011 the strategies set in 2010?
- How will MVNOs affect the Brazilian competitive climate in 2011?
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