Oi resumes growth in 2011
In 2011, Oi started to grow strongly, conquering the leadership in cellular net adds in the first quarter of 2011 (1Q11). However, the operators showed again low performance in April and May.
One of the reasons for the fall in net adds observed in the last two months can be a result of the cancellations that weren't performed in 1Q11, when the carrier showed a churn lower than its historical average.
Oi's gross additions reached 5.2 million mobile accesses in 1Q11 (28.4% bigger than the number gotten in 1Q10) and cancellations hit 3.1 million, corresponding to a monthly churn of 2.6%. If the 1Q10 churn had been repeated in 1Q11, cancellations would have reached 3.9 million mobile accesses.
If this hypothesis is right, Oi's net adds in 2Q11 are being affected by about 825 thousand additional cancellations that weren't performed in 1Q11. So, Oi's monthly churn would close to 4% in 2Q11.
An analyze based on the first five months of 2011 shows growth of Oi's net adds when compared with the same period 2010.
However, this growth wasn't enough to avoid Oi's loss of market share in regions I and II.
It was only in 2011 that Oi gained market share in Region III (São Paulo). In Region II its market share dropped to 14.8% in May, below the 15% registered by the operator in São Paulo.
Inside Region I, the carrier recovered its share in the North and Northeast of Brazil, but showed negative net adds in RJ/ES.
The participation of prepaid on Oi's cellular base increased from 86.6% in 2010 to 87.1% in May 2011.
Oi is going through a transition phase by the entrance of Portugal Telecom and the change in the partnership structure. The operator led net adds in 1Q11, but probably won't repeat this performance in 2Q11. In this first semester, Oi is succeeding in stop the trend that pointed to loss of market share and is likely to resume strong growth in the second semester.
You could ask:
- How was Oi's performance in June?
- Will Oi resume the leadership in the second quarter?
- Why can't Oi repeat, inside Region II, the growth gotten in São Paulo?
- How long Oi's reorganization will take?
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