Will Tim overtake Vivo in prepaid market share?
TIM overtook Claro in prepaid market share in 2010 and, kept the current trends, may surpass Vivo until the end of 2011.
The difference between Vivo and TIM in prepaid dropped from 7.7 million in 1Q10 to 1.9 million in Jul/11.
TIM led prepaid growth in 2011 holding net adds of 5.0 million prepaid accesses in the accumulated from Jan to Jul/11, 2.2 million more than Vivo.
In 2010, TIM overtook Vivo in prepaid segment inside the Region I and is reducing the difference to Vivo inside other regions.
The main difference, that points against TIM, is that Vivo has 2.5 million prepaid in Region III (São Paulo), but this number is being reduced. In Jul/11, Vivo presented net adds of 103 thousand prepaid cellulars in São Paulo against 358 thousand accesses gotten by TIM.
TIM's growth in prepaid is based on the INFINITY Plan which offers local and long distance on-net calls for R$ 0.25 by call.
In order to react to this scenario, in August, Vivo came up with a promotion for the prepaid segment which reduces the minute price in local and long distance on-net calls to R$ 0.05. The effect of this promotion will be measured when Anatel releases cellular growth in August. It's important to remember that Claro launched in Feb/11 a plan similar to INFINITY, but, even so, the company ended up losing the second position in cellular market share to TIM in Jul/11.
You could ask:
- Will TIM overtake Vivo in prepaid market share?
- Will Vivo's reaction, by charging R$ 0.05 per minute, be enough to reverse the current trend and to avoid being surpassed by TIM in prepaid?
- What will be TIM's next strategy in case the company succeed in conquer the leadership in prepaid market??
- Will Claro change its strategy?
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