Trends for the cellular market until Christmas
By Jose Luis de Souza and Adriana Andery
Cellular resumed record growth in August, with net adds of 3.7 million mobile accesses.
TIM led by holding net adds of 1.4 million cellulars, followed by Vivo (1.1 million), Claro (601 mi) and Oi (544 thousand).
These results reinforce the following trends for November, before Christmas 2011:
- TIM consolidates itself in the second position in market share
- TIM overtakes Vivo in prepaid market share
- Vivo amplifies the leadership in postpaid segment
- Cellular record growth, surpassing November/2010 in net adds
Cellular is showing record growth in 2011 and may accumulate until November net adds of 30 million mobile accesses, more than the 29 million registered in 2010.
Net adds of each month of 2011 were superior to the figures gotten in the same months of 2010 in 7 of the 8 months of the Year (except May). In August, the net adds of the last twelve months counted 34.6 million cellulars (growth of 18.26%).
This growth is being encouraged by TIM's performance. The company conquered 34.1% of the net adds in the accumulated in the year.
TIM overtook Claro in market share in July and opened an advantage of 1.4 million mobile accesses in August consolidating itself in the second position. The trend points out that the difference between TIM and Claro will continues to increase until November.
Vivo is keeping its market share in 29.5%, but the company can be overtaken by TIM in prepaid market share in November.
The difference between Vivo and TIM in the prepaid segment dropped in 1.4 million over the last three months. If this trend repeats in the next three months TIM will overtake Vivo in prepaid market share in November.
Most part of the decrease of this difference in prepaid is been registered in the State of São Paulo, where Vivo presented negative net adds in the first semester of 2011.
In order to invert this trend, Vivo launched in São Paulo (in August) a promotion with on-net calls for R$ 0.05. This action may not be enough, however, to avoid TIM of reaching the leadership in prepaid market share in Brazil.
In 2011, Vivo amplified its postpaid market share and may remain as net adds leader inside this segment in the next months.
This may be the scenario for the beginning of December, Christmas month, which holds the biggest cellular growth in the year. Some of these trends can be inverted in this month.
You could ask:
- Will TIM overtake Vivo in prepaid market share?
- Will Vivo's reaction (with the promotion charging R$ 0.05 by minute) be enough to invert the current trend and avoid getting overtaken by TIM in prepaid?
- Will Claro and Oi gain market share again?
- Will the subsidies be the main factor to determine growth in the next Christmas (November-December)?
- How will the growth of 3G coverage affect operators' performance?
- How much smartphones will cost next Christmas?
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