How will cellular increase inside the Brazilian market in 2012?
Anatel's preliminary data indicate that Brazil ended 2011 with 242.2 million mobile accesses and density of 123.9 cell./100 inhab.. Net adds reached 6.1 million cellulars in December and 39.3 million in the year.
All the months of 2011, except May, had bigger net adds in comparison with the figures gotten in 2010.
Cellular growth in Brazil in 2011 (19.4%) was bigger than the cellular world growth estimated by UIT (11.3%).
The biggest growth occurred in Brazilian Region I (21.1%), mainly in the Northeast. The Regions II and III increased 17.5% and 17.7% respectively in 2011.
Net adds hit 39.3 million mobile accesses in 2011 and registered a new record, which will hardly be overtaken in the next years. The Region I was responsible for 54% of these net adds.
Postpaid segment, with net adds of 8.2 million mobile accesses and growth of 22.9% in 2011, gave a relevant contribution for this result.
You could ask: How will cellular growth be in 2012?
The fierce competition between operators and the factors below may contribute to keep market heated in 2012:
- The competition between Vivo and TIM for the leadership in prepaid market share;
- Claro and Oi resuming growth, competing more in the market;
- Nextel entrance and the first MVNOs;
- Cheaper prices for on net calls encouraging the possession of more than one chip;
- The use of tablets, modems and data terminals;
On the other hand, the impacts of the European crisis in Brazil can contribute to the deceleration of this growth, by affecting PGD growth and making operators to become more careful.
Based on this scenario, Teleco estimates growth of 14% and net adds of 34 million mobile accesses in 2012. Brazil will end the year counting 276 million cellulars and density of 141 cell./100 inhab.
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