01/03/2025
What to monitor in 2025
The year 2024 was good for the telecommunications sector, but 60% of those who responded to the Teleco survey expect 2025 to be better or much better.
Below are the main trends to be followed this year.
- 5G
- Growth: Brazil is expected to have 40 million 5G cell phones by the end of 2024, less than the 50 million accesses projected if it had followed the growth curve seen when 4G was launched. If current trends continue, Brazil is expected to have over 60 million 5G cell phones by the end of 2025. Brazilian carriers continue to have the highest download speeds in the world, but the price of 5G smartphones is still high.
- Coverage: There were 5G networks in practically all cities with more than 100 thousand inhabitants and the expectation is that by the end of 2025 all municipalities with more than 30 thousand inhabitants will be covered. However, availability (time that the user remains connected to the 5G network) is low, which makes it difficult to expand the use of the new 5G core (SA). This situation is expected to remain as long as 5G cannot use lower frequencies, such as 600 MHz.
- Regional Operators. Brisanet and Unifique began deploying their 4G/5G networks in 2024 and the question is whether they will reach a customer base that makes the operation viable by 2025. Ligga and Yez are expected to do the same in 2025. It will be important for these operators to acquire the 700 MHz frequencies that will be auctioned by Anatel in 2025.
- Mobile
- Revenue Growth. Net revenue from Mobile showed annual growth superior to 8% in the first 3 quarters of 2024. The expectation is for lower growth in 2025, but still above 5%.
- Postpaid Growth. It's unclear if postpaid without M2M will be able to repeat the growth seen in 2024, when net additions exceeded prepaid losses. However, the migration from prepaid to postpaid is likely to continue in 2025. M2M terminals will continue to grow in 2025, driven by IoT applications.
- MVNOs. MVNOs are expected to keep growing in M2M for IoT, segment in which they held a 21% market share in October/24, but it is important to monitor their growth in the retail market. The number of MVNO cell phones used by people increased 81% in the first 10 months of 2024, totaling 1.3 million in October.
- Fixed Broadband
- Growth and Competition. Fixed broadband is expected to grow by about 5% in 2025 with net additions of around 3 million accesses. Competition is expected to become fiercer, however, with providers trying to grow where they have fiber networks rather than by expanding passed homes, increasing their take-up rate.
- Oi Fiber under new management. The expectation is that Oi Fiber, under the management of V.tal., will grow again, following the example of Vivo and Claro, intensifying competition with Competitive ISPs, especially in cities with more than 100 thousand inhabitants. The most efficient and best-quality service providers will survive.
- Consolidation. Brazil holds the world record in number of fixed broadband providers, holding about 8.8 thousand providers reporting their accesses to Anatel every month. The consolidation process is occurring more strongly among providers with 50 thousand to 300 thousand accesses, with providers such as Alares and Brasil Tecpar trying to surpass the 1 million fixed broadband access mark. It's also possible that mergers will occur involving providers with more than 1 million.
- Deactivation of the Copper Network. After signing the agreement at the Federal Court of Auditors to end fixed-line telephone concessions, Oi and Vivo will be able to deactivate their copper network, which could help reduce the load on the poles. It also opens up space for Competitive companies to offer fixed-line telephone services, especially in municipalities with less than 100 thousand inhabitants inside Oi's concession area.
- Technologies
- Private Networks. In the B2B market, private networks appear as the most prominent application. However, this is a slow process that needs to be developed for many segments and that can be accelerated with its availability through slicing in 2025. Industry and Agriculture appear as the segments with the greatest demand in Brazil.
- IoT. The implementation of Internet of Things solutions is growing in Brazil but this is a gradual process because, like what happens in private networks, the solutions are different for each market segment. M2M terminals for IoT showed growth of 16% in the first 10 months of 2024 and are expected to keep growing in 2025, with 4G becoming the main connection technology.
- eSIM. Adopted by mobile operators, its use in smartphones is expected to grow in 2025 and in IoT, with the new platform specified by GSMA for IoT.
- Satellites. The provision of broadband access through low-orbit satellites is expanding the range of solutions for covering remote locations not connected by a terrestrial network. Starlink, the market share leader in this segment will gain a competitor in 2024, Amazon's Kuiper. The integration of satellites into IoT solutions is also expected to grow in 2025 with the provision of services by ViaSat, Sateliot and Myriota.
- AI in Telecom. Artificial Intelligence is being integrated into mobile networks, since antenna optimization until failure prevention and improving customer experience. This process is expected to deepen by 2025.
It's also worth following the GSMA's Open Gateway initiative and the growth of Data Centers, stimulated by the demand for AI.
You could ask:
- Will 2025 be a better than 2024 for the telecommunications sector in Brazil?
- How will 5G advance in 2025?
- How will Oi Fiber perform under new management?
- How will the consolidation of Competitives progress in 2025?
- What technologies will stand out in 2025?
