teleco.com.br

12/29/2025

What to monitor in 2026

Revenue grow more than accesses. This trend is expected to continue in 2026, with growth in fixed broadband access being lower than in 2025, and M2M driving the growth in mobile access. The challenge for providers is to achieve revenue growth that exceeds inflation, which is possible by increasing revenue from services other than connectivity or through acquisitions. Which providers are prepared to succeed in this challenge?

Fixed Mobile Convergence. Selling fixed broadband access in a bundle with mobile has proven to be a successful strategy for building customer loyalty, reducing churn, and guaranteeing additional revenue. Approximately 85% of FTTH sales at Vivo's stores are made through the "Vivo Total" bundle. Brisanet and Unifique adopt similar strategy, only selling postpaid plans. Is having an MVNO the best strategy for other providers to compete in this market?

Adoption of AI. Telecommunications is one of the most advanced sectors in adopting Artificial Intelligence solutions due to the abundance of available data. It's being used in network automation and optimization, improving customer experience, fraud detection and customer service through agents. The growth of AI, especially inference AI, tends to significantly increase the demand for capacity and lower latency in WAN networks.

Data Centers and Submarines Cables. There's a global race to deploy AI data centers, with investments reaching hundreds of billions annually. Brazil is making moves to attract some of these investments. The northeastern states are showcasing their Energy availability and attractivity for submarine cables to guarantee high-capacity and low-latency connectivity.

5G. No acceleration in the growth curve of 5G access is expected in 2026, and Brazil's likely to end the year totalizing 80 million 5G mobile phones. Acceleration could occur with a reduction in the price of 5G smartphones and the expansion of the use of the new 5G core (SA), which would allow for the offering of new services and increased availability (the time a user remains connected to the 5G network). Could this acceleration occur in 2026?

Regional Operators. By 2026, they will have to offer the service in 30% of municipalities with less than 30 thousand inhabitants in their service area. Brisanet and Unifique are deploying their mobile networks and face the challenge of increasing the number of customers to make the operation profitable. Ligga sold its 5G frequency in São Paulo/North to the 5G Consortium and put its operation in Paraná up for sale. Will Ligga and iez! begin deploying their networks in 2026?

MVNOs. Brazil has most of the MVNOs in Latin America and they accounted for 4% of mobile accesses in Brazil in Oct/25. They're expected to continue growing in IoT, where they have over 20% of M2M access, but the greatest growth may occur in accesses for B2C (prepaid and postpaid), which doubled in the last 12 months up to Oct/25. This growth is followed by an increase in the number of authorized MVNOs. Will the MVNOs market share in Brazil exceed 5% in 2026?

Migration from prepaid to postpaid. The trend of migration from prepaid to postpaid is expected to continue in 2026. Prepaid represents 44% of all mobile phones in Brazil, excluding M2M. Prepaid still has a larger share than postpaid at TIM and in the North and Northeast regions. Is the growth of postpaid in these regions limited by the population's income?

Growth and Competition. Brazil is expected to end 2025 holding approximately 56 million fixed broadband connections, but due to underreporting, a more precise number will only be known in March 2026. Teleco estimates growth of about 6% in 2026. Competition has become fiercer, with providers seeking growth where they have fiber networks rather than expanding the number of homes passed, thus increasing their take-up rate. To succeed, it will be necessary to improve the customer experience and reduce churn. What's the best strategy for growth in this scenario?

Big Providers x Competitive Providers. The focus of the large providers (Vivo, Claro, and Nio) is on capital cities and municipalities with more than 100 thousand inhabitants. The Competitives Group leads in municipalities with less than 100 thousand inhabitants with over 80% market share and with 57% in municipalities between 100 thousand and 500 thousand. The large providers lead in municipalities between 500 thousand and 1 million (58%) and among those with more than 1 million (76%). Will the Competitives Group be able to increase its market share in larger municipalities by 2026?

Nio. The expectation that Oi Fibra, under V.tal's management, would return to growth in 2025 didn't materialize. Nio's justification was that it only completed the separation process from Oi in December, ceasing to share systems, operational processes, and customer databases. Will Nio start showing positive net additions in 2026?

Consolidation. The consolidation process of the about 9,5 thousand service providers, which reported their access numbers monthly to Anatel in 2025, continues across all sizes of providers. However, a concentration of accesses in a small number of providers shouldn't be expected. Brasil Tecpar, Alares and more recently the group that controls SKY, have been leading M&A operations among the bigger competitive providers. Big providers have had difficulty finding assets at attractive prices. Unlike in the mobile sector, are there no incentives to be an operator with national coverage? How will M&A operations advance in 2026?

Revenue Growth. B2B is identified as one of the segments with the most potential for revenue growth for service providers. At Vivo, for example, B2B accounted for 23% of the operator's revenue in the last 12 months up to 3Q25 and presented a growth of 15% in this period, driven by revenues from other services that grew 34%. Cloud (46%) and IoT (25%) were the segments with the largest share in this growth. What's the best strategy to grow in this scenario?

IoT. M2M terminals for IoT have shown a 16% annual growth in the last 12 months up to Sep/25 and are expected to continue growing in 2026. 4G has become the main connectivity technology and vehicles (Connected Car, Tracking, and Logistics) account for 75% of these accesses. The contract between Sabesp and Vivo for the installation of smart water meters in all properties in São Paulo and São José dos Campos by 2029 is an example of the potential to be explored in this market. Will MVNOs maintain their market share of more than 20% in M2M for IoT market?

Privative Networks. Private networks are a prominent application in B2B. However, it's a slow process that needs to be developed to many segments. What was observed in 2025, in Brazil and worldwide, was a smaller growth in the number of publicly announced private networks, but a greater expansion of existing ones. In 2026, the private networks of the electricity sector are likely to join those of Industry and Agriculture as the segments with the highest demand in Brazil. Could the offering of slicing solutions expand the adoption of private networks?

Fixed Telephony.The shutdown of Oi's copper network opened up space for Competitivas to offer fixed-line telephony services to businesses. In Oct/25, Competitives Group held 28% of this market, the same share as Claro and Vivo. Which operator will capture the 15% market share that Oi still holds?

The next comments will address regulatory issues and technological trends for 2026.

You could ask:

Will 2026 be a better year than 2025 for the telecommunications sector in Brazil?
How will 5G advance in 2026? How will regional operators perform?
Will MVNOs continue to grow in 2026?
How will Nio perform?
How will the consolidation of Competitive Markets evolve in 2026?

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