what to follow in 2007
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The year of 2006, as an example of the past years, still have the growth of cellulars as the main factor of expansion of the telecommunication's market. However, this growth was inferior becasuse of of Vivo's base cleaning in June and continued in the following months.
The offer of VoIP services had the entrance of some big players, for example Embratel and its partnership with Net. The product Net Fone through Embratel has reached 115 thousand subcribers in the 3Q06. In other hand, the number of small and medium operators that got in this market also grew.
The Broad Band services of fixed telephony concessionaires and cable TV companie continued growing, surpassing 5 million subscribers in the 3Q06. The base of cable TV subscribers grew, which also contributed to the Broad Band market.
The year of 2006 had discussed about the standard of Digital TV of Brasil, and resulted in the definition of japanese standard of modulation to the terrestrial Digital TV. So also had the first experimental transmissions of difital radio, and the broadcastings started with open digital transmission.
Finally, the new technologies of access and mobile networks (Wimax and 3G) made part of Anate's agenda, in which could available the licitation of frequencies to Wimax without success, hindered per TCU's decisions and thresholds in the Justice. Anatel also postponed the licitation of frequencies of 3G to 2007.
In this context, what should wiat to 2007? Following below some of the main subjects of each segment.
3G
The new regulation of frequencies to cellulars, established by Anatel, have specific subband to 3G networks, prepairing to the licitation of 2007, forecast to the beginnig of 3G networks operation in these bands right in the first semester of 2008. However, Claro would be ready to launch its 3G services in the band of 800 MHz, antecipating itself to the other operators.
3G networks bring the access in broad band to cellulars and PDA's and also allows, it use through installed plates in notebooks. In this situatio, as much the intensive users as the corporations could use it to implement new sophisticated applications and give more mobility to its partners. These networks also have bigger capacity which can take the operators to offer plans with incentives to a great utilization of its services.
All of these factors can generate the atualization of the cellular networks and the entrance of modern terminals in the country and with great visualization capacity through bigger displays, as the processing, to attend the demand of new applications.
Wimax
The available of equipments of access based on Wimax technology and the licitation of frequencies foreseen to 2007 must change the market of brod band services, as much densely populated localities, where there is a big market, as small localities, where little or no offers of these services exists.
It's possible that Anatel's restrictions to the concessionaires of fixed telephony for the acquisitions of frequencies in its concession's areas could be checked out to allow the licitation.
Would be interesting to observe these facts and it relation with the available of brado band services, VoIP and even the applications o mobility based in Wimax technology.
VoIP
The entrance of big operators in this market in 2006 and the available of broad band services in large-scale must impact VoIP market in 2007, even for the increasing of service as by the possible consolidation of small operators.
As an example of what happened in 2006, the offer of VoIP services should be done in services packs that could include Pay TV or IPTV and Internet access.
However, it won't be the moment for ample dissemination of VoIP technology to the consumption market , substitute of conventional telephony, even though there is growth of this market.
Digital TV
Defined the standard of terrestrial Digital TV, the next step is the development of the set-top boxes or converters of Digital TV to be used. This is a important factor, cause this development has direct impact in the transmitters to be used by broadcasters, in which also need adaptations.
Even though the stated period of 6 months foreseen by broadcasters to begin the first experimental transmissions, the success of the system is direct related with the available and with the cost of these converters.
It will be interesting to follow up the development of the converters and the movement of Manufactuers and broadcasters to adjust themselves and even antecipate the facts and begin the transmissions as soon as possible.
MVNO
The virtual operators of services, specially in the cellular networks, are already real in the USA and Europa, and has been a way to search for growth in the markets of fixed telephony in these countries However, these has been done for some big operators that offer facility and incentives to the implantation of these virtual networks.
In Brazil, there isn't initiatives to the implantation of these services, and has been told that Anatel still not concluded the report necessary to allow the operation of these virtual networks.
However, according to the not inexistence of cellulars networks and some of the regions and the trend to the criation of specific comunities, very common in Brazil, it's possible that appear good initiatives and succeded the implantation of virtual networks of cellulars.
Cellular Telephony Operators
The dispute in the cellular market that happened in 2006 must continue in 2007, and Tim must surpass Vivo in market share and in revenue probably in the first quarter of the next year.
However, it's good to observe that some events can change the actual market:
Fixed Telephony Operators
The expectative in relation to fixed telephony operators is responsibility of the shareholders reorganizations Telemar and Brasil Telecom:
Conversion Pulse- Minute
The process of adoption of the conversion of pulse to minute was postponed to 2007, even though Anatel announced that the operators of fixed telephony can ( and must) offer minute plans to its subscribers. Some processes began in the Justice in 2006 with the objective of getting a revision in the conversion forms, mainly by entities and associations of defense of the consumer, but the " final battle" must be during 2007.
A big question is who is gonna pay the bill, in case of none "formula" of consensus to be found. As much as cosumers as the operators want to keep the current conditions or even improve it, and don't pretend to give up its "rights". However, some kind of agreement could be gotten to compensate the current "loser".
Numerical Portability
Planned before the introuction of 3G and MVNO, the definition is expected to the first months of 2007. The dispute for the service's administration and network must be hard between international and national players. The most important thing is to follow the reaction of the cellular operators beyond a threat of churn growth.
Suppliers Consolidation
The consolidation of Alcatel-Lucent will be totally finished in 2007 and Nokia-Siemens will begin the process soon, even the threat per discussions because of Siemens accounting. Some movement still waited involving Nortel in 2007. The need of consolidations beyond a market with less clients, however, suggest more consolidations will happen in 2007, involving big manufactorers Europeans and Americans.
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