What will be Cellular Growth in 2007?
Brazil finished 2006 with 99.9 million cellulars and density of 53.2 cell/100 inhab. The base of cellulars grew 15.9% in 2006 with net adds to the base of 13.7 million cellulars. With this resullt Brazil reached the 5th position between countries with more cellulars in the world, surpassing Japan that finished the year with 99.8 million cellulars.
The growth of the market was lesser than the projections done by Teleco in January/06, that projected to 2006 Net adds between 18 and 22 million cellulars (More details).
The following figure presents a monthly comparison between net adds of 2005 and 2006.
The decrease in the net adds from 20.6 million cellulars in 2005 to 13.7 million cellulars in 2006 can be explained by the following factors:
The year 2006 presented a uniform growth between operators. Tim, Claro, OI and BrT were responsible for the cellular growth in 2006. Together present net adds of 14.4 million cellulars in the year. Between them, Claro was the only one to present net adds in 2006 bigger than 2005.
Teleco's projections to 2007
Teleco's projections, kept the actual situation of operators, Brazil should finish 2007 with 111 to 114 million cellulars. Net Adds in 2007 must be between 11 and 14 million cellulars. So, the cellular growth is similar to 2006. However, the launching of new models of cellular devices will improve the market in Brazil, in which the growth will be based in the churn and checked in market share and revenue share. New plans for clients will make part of the brazilian's day-by-day in 2007.
The following table presents the probable situation to 2007, projected by Teleco:
| Thousands | 2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
Projection 2007 |
| Cellulars | 65.6 |
86.2 |
99.9 |
112.5 |
| Nett Adds | 19.2 |
20.6 |
13.7 |
12.5 |
| Growth | 41.5% |
31.4% |
15.9% |
12.6% |
| % Pre-pay | 80.5% |
80.8% |
80.6% |
81% |
| Density (Cell/100 inhab.) |
36.63 |
46.58 |
53.24 |
59.1 |
Could be affected by Vivo, Tim and Claro's behavior:
The probable launching of 3G also could cheer up the market, changing the inclination of the growth curve.
You could ask :
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