Who will lead the growth of cellular in 2008? Vivo or Oi?
The competition in the mobile market in Brazil is strong, in a way that is increasingly difficult to point out who will lead the growth of cellular in Brazil in 2008.
Until May, Tim and Oi led this growth with accumulated net additions in the year of 1.8 million cell phones, compared with 1.4 million of Claro and Vivo (more details).
The month of May was marked by a turnaround, with Vivo assuming the leadership in accumulated net adds in the year (more details).
These trends be held in the first 5 months, Vivo and Oi appear as the favorites to lead growth of cellular in 2008.
Vivo reinforced by the acquisition of Telemig Celular, seems to have found the path of growth in a strategy that combines promotions of equipments and services, mainly in dates as Mother's Day and Christmas. It can be overcome in net additions in the coming months and regain the leadership at Christmas, similar to what occurred in May on Mother's day.
Oi has shown a consistent growth in its area of activity based on minute promotional plans as "Ligador." The entry into operation in São Paulo at 2nd half of this year should strengthen this growth more than the entry into operation of Vivo in the states of the Northeast. Note that if the acquisition of of BrT by Oi had already been effected, Oi would be leading off this race.
Tim, who started the year on an aggressive way, appears to have reduced the pace in recent months.
Claro which was the leader in net adds in 2007, seems to be adopting an less aggressive strategy in 2008.
However, the particular dispute between Tim and Claro by placing 2nd in market share can lead these operators to accelerate the step and overcome the others. The difference between Tim and Claro dropped to 1.1 million cell phones in May/08.
If there is a favorite in the dispute of net adds, the same can't be said of the gain in market share. Oi was the only one, of the 4 operators, to present positive changes in their maket share in 2008.
| % | 2007 | May/08 | ∆ p.p.* |
| Vivo | 30.90% | 30.45% | -0.45 |
| Tim | 25.85% | 25.60% | -0.25% |
| Claro | 24.99% | 24.75% | -0.24% |
| Oi | 14.38% | 15.09% | 0.71% |
| * percentage points |
Oi for having a cellular basis for less than the others, presented a growth of 13.2%, against 6.3% of Vivo and 6.9% of Tim and Claro.
The fierce competition among operators has driven growth in cellular and has monthly overcoming the net adds of 2007.
The net additions of 25.5 million, accumulated over the past 12 months till May/08, indicate that the growth of cellular in Brazil may exceed Teleco's projection of net additions of 25 million cell phones in 2008.
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