Can the world crisis affect the record cellular growth in 2008?
Brazil finished September/08 reaching 140.8 million cellulars. The net adds in the year already counted 19.0 million of cellulars, 28 million on the last 12 months.
The net adds of 2008 is surpassing, in each month, the net adds of 2007.
As we can see, until Sept/08, the cellular pace of growth in Brazil didn't suffer any impact from the international financial crisis.
The record cellular growth in 2008 has been stimulated by fierce competition between the operators, caused by a more active posture from Oi and Vivo.
The most probable is that the financial crisis won't affect growth in the last quarter of 2008. Oi starting to operate in São Paulo and Vivo in the Northeast might create a even more stronger competition in 4Q08.
According to Teleco projections, Brazil might finish 2008 counting more than 150 million cellulars, establishing a new net adds record in the year.
Claro is leading the growth by holding net adds of 5.4 million cellulars in the accumulated from Jan-Sept/08.
Claro reached the leadership in 3Q08 when presented growth in net adds much superior than the other operators'.
Cellular net adds:
| Thousands | Jul/08 |
Aug/08 |
Sept/08 |
3Q08 |
| Claro | 608 |
1,012 |
936 |
2,556 |
| Vivo | 498 |
757 |
587 |
1,842 |
| Oi | 651 |
674 |
240 |
1,565 |
| Tim | 350 |
547 |
494 |
1,391 |
| BrT | 44 |
87 |
100 |
231 |
Oi had its performance affected in Sept/08, when the company presented net adds of 240 thousand cellulars, due to the North of the country, where Oi presented net adds of -255 cellulars. It's likely to be a base cleaning in Amazônia Celular's base, which was acquired in this year by Oi.
The cellular growth in the Christmas won't be affected by the rise in the exchange rate of the dollar to levels up to R$ 2.00, what could result in a increase in the cell phones prices, since their components are imported. The major part of the orders were already made but, if it happens, Vivo and Claro, both have promotions based on the sales of subsidized devices, would have to chose between increase the subsidy of devices or lose competitiveness to Oi and Tim.
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