05/04/2009

The fight for market share in 2009: Claro x Vivo and Oi x Tim

 

Cellular market in Brazil is consolidated by 4 big operators with national coverage and together they concentrate 99.6% of cellulars.

 

 

The difference that separates the leader operator (Vivo) from the 4th position (Oi/BrT) fell along one year from 11.92 percentage points (1Q08) to 9.03 (1Q09). Kept the current trends, this difference might fall about 8 percentage points by the end of 2009.

 

 

A more balanced distribution of market share between operators might strengthen some competitions, like:

• Claro x Vivo. Vivo's likely to keep losing market share in 2009, even though it will hardly be reached by Claro this year. Claro presented low growth in 1Q09 (more detail) and will have to accelerate in the next quarter in order to keep its growth on gaining market share and get closer to Vivo.
• Oi x Tim. Oi is getting closer Tim, which promoted a cleaning in its base in 2009 and is more focused in profitability than in market share, and might surpass the company by the end of 2009. São Paulo is the main lever for Oi's growth being responsible for 44.4% of its net adds in 1Q09.

You could ask:

• Will Oi overcome Tim?
• Will Claro keep focusing in growth or start to give attention to profitability, like Tim?
• Will the promotion of prepaid cellulars for low prices continue?

• In general, will the most important issue in 2009 be keeping market share? What will happen to the offers for corporative market?

 

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