07/13/2009
What to monitor in 2009 (Assessment of the first semester)
Brazil started 2009 with a modified competitive climate due to the incorporation of Brasil Telecom (BrT) by Oi and operators cautious behavior in face of the crisis in Telecom market.
After six months, Teleco makes an assessment of ten trends (more details) which were selected in Jan/09 to be monitored during the year.
- Cellular Growth. Cellular growth was affected by the base cleaning, of about 1 million cellulars, promoted by Tim and by operators less aggressive posture for promotions. May/2009 was the first month in the year to register net adds superior than the same month of the previews year (more details). Oi led cellular growth with aggressive promotions in São Paulo state and in BrT's region, and started to threaten Tim's 3rd position in Market Share. Teleco keeps its forecast for net adds of 25 million cellulars in 2009, with Brazil finishing the year with density of more than 90 cell/100 inhab..
- 3G expansion. Operators continued to amplify their 3G networks in Brazil, with Vivo and Claro covering more than 50% of the Brazilian population. The mobile broadband market through modems isn't increasing more only due to problems in coverage and quality of the provided services. Yet, it's not discarded the possibility that Anatel will carry out in 2009 the auction of Band H and by this insert a new competitor in the Brazilian Markert.
- Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO). With cellular overcoming a density of 90cell/100inhab., the time is coming for MVNOs to be allowed in Brazil, as had happened in other countries in the world. Most likely, however, it will occur in 2010.
- Cellular Revenue overcomes the fixed telephony's. Despite the world tendency for cellular operators revenue to grow more than fixed telephony operators' (including broadband), this didn't happen in Brazil in 1Q09. Only in 2010, cellular revenue might surpass fixed telephony's in Brazil.
- Fixed Telephony Growth. In 2009, the quantity of fixed accesses in service remained the trend for growth observed in 2008, mainly due to the authorized companies, such as Embratel and GVT, stimulated by portability.
- WiMAX. The auction of WiMAX frequencies (3.5GHz) is still awaited in Brazil. Most likely, however, it will be carried out in 2010.
- Number Portability. Since March 2009, portability is available in the whole country. Even though its use is still low (more details).
- Operators Consolidation. Com a aquisição da Intelig pela Tim não são esperados novos movimentos em 2009. A GVT continua, no entanto, como possível alvo de aquisição.
- Triple Play. There are no signs that changes in the Pay TV regulation will be carried out in 2009, these changes could increase competition in this segment and strengthen promotions like triple play (fixed telephony, broadband and Pay TV).
- Digital TV. Digital TV continues to expand to new cities, but it's still facing coverage problems, few options of programs and converters prices.
The matter of Brazilian broadband also deserves mention (more details). It's getting obvious the necessity of a more spanning policy to increase broadband density in Brazil.
You could ask:
- Will the international financial crisis affect the Telecom sector in Brazil in the 2nd semester of 2009?
- Will Nextel acquire a 3G license?
- Will WiMax auction occur in 2009?
- What will come first, WiMax or MVNO?
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