01/07/2010
What to monitor in 2010
2009 was a tough year for the telecommunication sector, but 2010 starts with an optimistic climate. According to Teleco's poll 74 percent considered that 2010 will be better or much better than 2009.
Teleco selected 10 main trends to be monitored in 2010:
- Broadband: After many discussions, in 2010 Brazil is likely to have a National Plan for Broadband establishing targets and investments in order to accelerate the implementation of broadband infrastructure in the country. Teleco promoted in 2009 an big discussion about this topic.
- Expansion 3G/mobile Broadband: In 2009, Anatel will carry out the auction for Band H which can open a spot in the Brazilian mobile market for another competitor. Initially, Nextel and Vivendi are the main candidates. This is another factor that induces operators to accelerate the expansion of their 3G networks in Brazil. Meanwhile, the so expected auction for frequencies of 3.5 GHz (to be used by WiMAX) may be executed.
- Expansion of optical fiber networks: The growth in mobile broadband use, followed by the exponential growth in traffic, is congesting operators' backhaul and making clear the need of connecting cell sites with fiber. It's important to accelerate the construction of optical rings in cities and fiber networks until a residence/ neighborhood (FTTH).
- Convergent operators: Net's success with triple play (fixed telephony, broadband and pay TV) and Oi's plans "Oi Conta Total" (internet, fixed and mobile telephony), associated to the convergence of fixed and mobile networks, confirms the advantage gotten by the operators that adopted an strategy about convergence of networks and services.
- Pay TV liberalization: The convergence process may accelerate the changes in the regulation of cable TV set in PL 29, which had been approved by the Chamber of Deputies and after that was sent to the Senate.
- Operators Consolidation: The acquisitions of GVT by Vivendi and Intelig by TIM in 2009 created a new competitive scenario for 2010, in which there are few targets for acquisitions (Aeiou and Sercomtel, for example). That can only change if Telecom Italia decides to sell Tim Brasil. Embratel, by the PL 29 approval, can acquire the Net's control and Telefonica will have to solve Vivo's shareholder issue in order to promote the integration with Telefonica.
- More than 100 mobile accesses per 100 inhabitants: Mobile access will continue to grow and Brazil is likely to close 2010 with density of more than 100 cell/100 inhab., joining Argentina, Chile, Venezuela and Uruguay, that had already surpassed this mark. With the maturity of the market, the majority of the new clients comes from (or are) clients of other operators. The control of churn becomes essential for operators' performance: an example was Vivo's performance in the 2nd semester of 2009.
- Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO): With cell phones surpassing the density of 100 cell.100 inhab., it's time for MVNOs development in Brazil, like what happened in other countries in the world. Anatel already opened a public consultation to analyze the proposed regulation.
- Growth of Smartphones. The growth of 3G networks promotes smartphones sales what enables better use of value-added services such as email and internet access on cell phone. A survey carried out by Teleco shows that the percentage of cell phone users that access the internet increases from 4% to 15% when considered only owners of smartphones (learn about MAVAM Report). Smartphones represented 15% of the cell phones sold in the world in 3Q09. The launch of new models will continue in 2010 prevailing Touchscreen.
- Growth of operators' data revenue: The participation of data revenue in mobile operators' gross revenue of service increased from 9.4% in 3Q08 to 12.5% in 3Q09. The growth will continue in 2010 promoted by revenues with internet access, mainly through modems, message services (SMS, email) and entertainment (music, games, video). In the world, data revenues (broadband) also have gotten the highest growth in fixed operators, compensating the fall in the revenue with voice services.
You could ask:
- Will Brazil reach, in 2010, a National Plan for Broadband capable to lead the country to overcome the existing gap?
- Will Brazil have a new competitor in the mobile market in 2010? Which company will acquire new 3G license? Will the operators increase the current coverage of their 3G networks?
- Will there be growth in the implementation of Optical Fiber networks, including in FTTH offer?
- Will operators make convergent offers?
- Will WiMAX auction be accomplished in 2010?
- What will happen with Tim in 2010?
- Will Brazil surpass the mark of 100 cell/100 inhab. in 2010?
- Will MVNOs arrive in Brazil in 2010? Which companies will be the candidates?
- Will digital TV overcome its problems in coverage, programming and set top box prices in 2010 and increase the number of users?
- How will develop the growth of operators data revenue in 2010?
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