The competition between Vivo, Claro, Tim and Oi for market share in 2010
The board about mobile market share in Brazil remained stable in 2009.
Oi was the only company, among the four biggest operators, to gain market share in 2009 due to its performance in the state of São Paulo. Oi gained market share in the first semester of the year and lost in the second semester (November as base).
Vivo, Claro and Tim presented the inverse movement. They lost market share in the first semester and recovered in the second semester.
Vivo and Claro consolidated their positions in 2009, despite the loss in market share.
Vivo, the leader, increased the difference in the number of mobile accesses that separates the company from Claro, from 6.2 million in 2008 to 7.0 million in Nov/09. The same happened with Claro (in the 2nd position) which increased its difference in relation to Tim (in the 3rd position) from 2.3 to 2.8 million mobile accesses.
Vivo is likely to remain in market share leadership in 2010. Even if Claro starts to compete in a more aggressive way for the first position, it hardly can reverse, along the period of one year, the distance which separates the company from Vivo.
Although it is possible for Tim to reduce the distance from Claro and fight for the second position, it is unlikely to happen in 2010. Claro overcame Tim in 2007 and is gradually increasing its advantage.
Tim probably won't be surpassed in 2010. With the fall in Oi's performance, in the second semester of 2009, the fight for the third position (Oi x Tim) will only become fierce if Tim present drop in its performance. 3G offer can make the difference, so can the competition for São Paulo market.
So you can ask:
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