Is Telecom sector decreasing its growth pace in Brazil?
Information Services' GDP, in which the participation of fixed and mobile operators is bigger than 60% (more details), increased 3.2% last year (2Q09 - 2Q10), less than the GDP Brazil (5.4%). It didn't happen since 1Q07.
In comparison with the GDP Brazil, Information Services' GDP got a bigger growth in the period from 1998 to 2003, followed the growth from 2004 to 2007 and overtook it again in 2008 and 2009.
Note that the annual growth for the Information Services' GDP has been very close to operators' gross revenue in fixed and mobile telephony) as shown in the image below.
Note: Growth in the last four months in relation to the four previous quarters.
In face of this climate you could ask:
It's difficult to imagine that the growth of Information Services' GDP will overcome GDP Brazil in 2010. Despite the fact that we can notice the recuperation in the growth of operators' gross revenue in 2Q10 (3.7%), which wasn't considered by the Information Services' GDP (3.2%), GDP's growth will hardly reach the 7% to 8% estimated for GDP Brazil in 2010.
So, the question is: As what happened four years ago, will the sector grow more than Brazil next year?
The year of 2006 was marked by restructures, base cleaning and option by Vivo's GSM besides the negative readjustment of the tariffs for fixed telephony (more details). Is affected the growth of the total of accesses in service in 2006, but accesses growth rate increased again in 2007, promoting growth in revenues.
Note: Includes Fixed and Mobile accesses, Pay TV and Fixed Broadband.
The scenario for 2011 is a bit different:
The last shareholder movements point out to operators' restructures in order to resume to a stronger growth in broadband in 2010. However, this growth can be affected, if the Brazilian government doesn't approve the former PL 29 (current PLC 116), which will promote the liberation of Pay TV.
You could ask:
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