Will Tim overtake Claro in mobile market share?
The mobile operators' competitive board in Brazil is stable since August 2008, when Claro overtook Tim and reached the second position in mobile market share ranking.
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Vivo's market share fell 29.3% in 2Q09, but it resumed growth and increased 30.2% ensuring (in Aug/10) the advantage of more than 9.1 million mobile accesses over Claro (in the second position).
On another hand, Oi's market share reached 21.2% in 2Q10 and dropped to 19.7% in Aug/10, counting 8.6 million mobile accesses less than Tim (third in the ranking).
In this climate, the main competition is between Claro and Tim, for the second position.
Claro had 3.6 million mobile accesses more than Tim in Feb/09, when Tim cleaned from its base 1 million cell phones. This advantage fell to 2.6 million in the first semester of 2009 and later it grew again, ending the year with 3.3 million cell phones.
The difference between Claro and Tim went through the same trajectory in 2010 until July when it fell to 2.2 million, this was the lowest value registered since Dec/08.
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The result gotten in Sep/10 will be important to confirm (or not) this trend of fall in the difference in these operators' total of cellulars.
Note that the difference between Claro and Tim was reduced in August because Tim's net adds were much higher than
other operators' (965 thousand mobile accesses) and it didn't happen due to Claro's low performance (624 thousand cell phones).
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Tim's growth in Aug/10, happened mainly in prepaid (884 thousand mobile accesses) stimulated by the plan "Infinity Pré" with local calls or log distance calls between Tim's cell phones costing R$0.25. Tim can make this kind of promotion for long distance calls because the operator integrates mobile and long distance services. Claro doesn't provide long distance service. Tim is the leader in long distance market share since Dec/09, even though its revenue share in this service had reached only 12.9% in 2Q10.
If Tim repeats this result in the following months, it can overtake Claro in the first semester of 2011.
You could ask:
Will Tim overtake Claro?
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