Does Brazil have already more than 100 cell./100 inhabitants?
According to Anatel's preliminary data, Brazil ended September 2010 with 191.5 million mobile accesses and density of 98.98 cell./100 inhab. 2.1 million cellulars more and Brazil will overtake the mark of 100 cell./100 inhab., what is likely to happen in October or in November (2010) as estimated by Teleco (more details). Net adds of Oct/09 reached 2.0 million mobile accesses.
If Nextel's 2.9 million mobile accesses were included by Anatel in the total of cellulars, Brazilian density in Sep/10 would had already reached 100.5 cell./100 inhab. Brazil is the only country that doesn't count Nextel's mobile accesses in the total of cellulars. It happens because Anatel doesn't qualify Nextel's accesses as Personal Mobile Service - SMP, but as Specialized Mobile Service - SME (Trunking).
In Aug/10, 65.5% of the Brazilian mobile accesses were located in local areas (Area Code) in which the density is higher than 100 cell./100 inhab., where 56% of the population lives.
What happens when a country reaches this mark? Does it stop increasing?
No. As we can see by the total net adds in Europe, it overtook this mark in 2007, where the continent presented an expressive growth in its net adds. 2009's lower growth was mostly influenced by the world financial crisis than by the high density in European countries.
Teleco's projections indicate that Brazil is likely to end 2010 with net adds of 26 million mobile accesses, this value is higher than the 23 million gotten in 2009. Monthly net adds in 2010 were bigger if compared to each correspondent month of 2009 in 6 from the 9 months until Sep/10.
If the number of mobile accesses continues to grow after overtaking the mark of 100 cell./100 inhab., the same doesn't happen with the revenue. The competition and having more than one chip per user drive to the drop of voice ARPU and eventually the growth in cellular base starts to represent a significative increment to the revenue. Market maturity demands operators to offer new services investing in the growth of data revenue and value added services.
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