11/16/2011

A more equilibrated board of cellular leadership in 3Q11

 

By Debora Vieira

 

 

The third quarter of 2011 (3Q11) presented a more equilibrated board of leaders if compared with the previous quarters, with Vivo leading three indicators, TIM leads two and Claro and Oi one each.

 

 

 

 

Indicator Leader in
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
Cellulars Market Share
Vivo
Vivo
Vivo
Vivo
Growth Net Adds
TIM
Oi
TIM
TIM
Revenue Net Revenue
Vivo
Vivo
Vivo
Vivo
Revenue by Client ARPU
Vivo
Vivo
Vivo
Vivo
Profitability EBITDA Margin
Vivo
Vivo
Vivo
Oi
Quality Anatel's Targets
TIM
TIM
Vivo
TIM
Coverage Covered Population
Vivo
Vivo
Claro
Claro

Note: Groups' net revenue considers revenue eliminations between the companies of the Group.

 

Since 2007 Teleco keeps track of mobile operators' performance in Brazil which is measured through these seven indicators. Since 2008 this board doesn't show such equilibrium, with Vivo leading in three indicators and the others leading at least one.

 

 

 

 

The following presents the results for each one of these indicators in 3Q11.

 

 

Market Share: Vivo leads, but TIM is the only to gain market share in the year

 

Vivo, the biggest cellular operator in Brazil, ended 3Q11 holding 67.0 million mobile accesses and market share of 29.49%.

 

 

 

 

TIM overtook Claro in 3Q11 and reached the second position in the Brazilian market share. Vivo and TIM were the only ones to gain market share in 3Q11. Only TIM gained market share in the year.

 

 

- Market Share Market Share Variation
(percentage points)
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
p.p. (Qua) p.p. (4Q10/2Q11)
Vivo
30.14%
29.71%
29.48%
29.47%
29.49%
0.02
-0.22
TIM
24.52%
25.14%
25.11%
25.55%
26.04%
0.49
0.90
Claro
25.47%
25.44%
25.39%
25.55%
25.30%
-0.25
-0.14
Oi
19.51%
19.35%
19.69%
19.10%
18.84%
-0.26
-0.51

Vivo is the market share leader in 3 regions, in 12 from the 27 states (including Brasília) and in 29 from the 67 area codes (DDD).

 

 

- Market Share Leader in 3Q11
Region
State*
Area Code (DDD)
Vivo I, II and III 12 29 (-1)
Claro - 6 17 (+1)
Tim - 5 (-2) 15
Oi - 4 (+2) 6

*Includes Brasília (Brazilian capital city

In 3Q11, Vivo lost the leadership inside area code 32 (Juiz de Fora) to Claro. TIM, lost the leadership in Pernambuco and Ceará to Oi.

Vivo amplified its leadership in postpaid market share.

 

 

 

 

But, in prepaid, Tim is gaining market share and can overtake Vivo by the end of 2011. The difference which separates these two companies inside this segment dropped from 4.1 million in 2010 to 1.1 million in 3Q11.

 

 

 

 

Growth: TIM reaches leadership

 

TIM led cellular growth in the quarter (3.7 million) and in the accumulated of the year (8.2 million from January to November).

 

-
Net Adds (thousands)
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
Accumulated in the year
TIM
1,821
2,676
3,685
8,182
Vivo
1,769
1,988
2,989
6,746
Claro
1,800
2,096
1,979
5,875
Oi
2,170
66
1,332
3,569

 

Vivo stayed in the second position in net adds and Oi, which had led growth in 1Q11, presented low performance in the following quarters.

 

TIM improved its postpaid performance, but 83% of its net adds were gotten in prepaid.

 

 

 

 

Net Revenue: Vivo keeps the advantage over other operators

 

 

 

Vivo remained in the leadership holding revenue of R$ 5.4 billion in 3Q11 and growth of 7.2% in the quarter. Vivo and Tim had the biggest annual growth in revenue (16.4% and 19.8% respectively), while Claro's and Oi's revenues increased 7.0% and 7.1% in comparison with 3Q10.

 

R$ Billion 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 Growth Qua Growth.
3Q11/3Q10
Vivo 4,233 4,402 4,619 4,863 4,812 5,015 5,376
7.2%
16.4%
Tim
3,100
3,328
3,433
3,671
3,501
3,983
4,114
3.3%
19.8%
Claro 2,769 2,902 2,933 2,772 2,958 3,060 3,138
2.5%
7.0%
Oi 2,487 2,571 2,652 2,745 2,517 2,784 2,840
2.0%
7.1%

Note: TIM's revenue was estimated by Teleco and doesn't include Intelig and TIM Fixed.

 

Data segment was responsible for most of the growth gotten in the Vivo's net revenue, increasing 43.2% in 3Q11/3Q10. At TIM, handsets net revenue increased 87.5% in the period hitting R$ 485 million in 3Q11.

 

 

ARPU: Vivo amplifies its leadership in 3Q11

 

 

The growth un data revenue, encouraged by the investments in 3G, helped Vivo to amplify the leadership in ARPU. Vivo's data ARPU (R$ 6.1) represented 23.3% of the total ARPU.

 

ARPU (R$) 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
Vivo 24,8 25,0 25,3 25,9
24,6
25,1

26,2

Oi 21,8 22,4 22,9 23,5 20,7 21,6 22,2
TIM 24,0 24,2 23,5 23,3 20,8 21,6 21,2
Claro 20,0 20,0 19,0 18,0 18,0 17,0 17,0
ARPU Brazil 22,8 23,0 22,8 22,8 21,2 21,5

21,8

Note: Claro's values consider the integration with Embratel which eliminates common revenues.

 

Oi overtook TIM in ARPU in 3Q11.

 

TIM, Vivo and Claro presented growth in its minutes used monthly by users (MOU) in 3Q11.

 

Minutes 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
TIM 100 110
123
129
126
127
130
Vivo 116 114 115 118 114 119 127
Claro 92 93 100 96 90 84 109
MOU Brazil 103 106 113 114 110 110 122

Note: Oi doesn't release this indicator.

 

The growth of MOU showed by Claro indicates that the operator was stricter in its criteria to turn off inactive clients in 3Q11.

 

 

Profitability: Oi leads in EBITDA Margin

 

Oi led profitability in 3Q11, being the only group to get EBITDA margin superior to 35%. This result indicates that the operator continues to focus profitability instead of growth.

 

 

 

 

 

EBITDA Margin 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
Oi 33.9% 36.2%
38.1%
31.2%
28.6%
35.0%
35.6%
Vivo/Telefonica 34.0% 36.4% 35.9%
37.9%
35.6%
37.2%
34.2%
TIM 28.7% 28.4% 28.2% 30.6% 27.5% 26.8% 26.4%
Claro/Embratel 33.9% 29.2% 31.1% 27.3% 28.5% 27.9% 26.2%

 

Note: Since 2Q11 changes were done in the criteria to measure profitability, starting to be considered the group's EBITDA margin gathering fixed and mobile operations. It was necessary to make this change because Vivo, Claro and TIM release this indicator only this way.

 

 

Quality: TIM leads in 3Q11

 

TIM led in accomplishing Anatel's quality targets in 3Q11 with 99.9% of met targets, followed closely by Vivo with 99.4%.

 

Accomplished Quality Targets
- 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
TIM
98.5%
99.0%
99.9%
100%
99.8%
99.9%
99.9%
Vivo
99.9%
99.9%
99.4%
99.1%
99.7%
100%
99.4%
Claro 98.7% 98.5% 97.8% 96.1% 97.0% 95.5% 92.8%
Oi 82.8% 80.6% 79.1% 80.6% 84.5% 94.8% 92.1%

 

Among these four operators, Vivo presented (in 3Q11) the smallest index of complaints and the best performance with user (IDA).

 

 

Coverage: Claro keeps the leadership

 

Claro kept the leadership in covered population (90.6%), even not having increased the number of covered cities in the quarter. Vivo continues to lead in quantity of covered cities.

 

  Covered Cities Covered Population
Operadora 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
Claro 3,478 3,486 3,568 3,568 90.1% 90.2% 90.6% 90.6%
Vivo 3,646 3,659 3,665 3,683 90.2% 90.3% 90.3% 90.5%
Tim 3,205 3,209 3,209 3,212 89.5% 89.5% 89.5% 89.6%
Oi 2,913 2,913 2,913 2,979 83.2% 83.2% 83.2% 83.3%

Source: Anatel

 

Vivo leads 3G coverage reaching (in 3Q11) 1,450 cities, followed by Claro (494), TIM (281) and Oi (213).

 

 

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Note: The opinions expressed in the published articles in this section are their authors' responsibility.

 

 

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