The impact of the punishment on cellular growth in Brazil
Since July 23th, 2012, Anatel suspended cellular sales for the following operators:
The suspension may last until Anatel approves the investments plan presented by the operators aiming the improvement of quality in the provided services.
This commentary evaluate the impact that this punishment can have on this operators' net adds and on the Brazilian market.
Oi led cellular growth in Jun/12, followed by TIM and by Claro. These two last operators would have presented very different results if the suspension determined by Anatel had occurred during all the month of June.
 |
In order to estimate the impact of this punishment imposed by Anatel, we adopted as hypothesis that operators' net adds were affected only where the sales were suspended.
To get the total of Brazilian net adds for each operator we took off, from the net adds inside the states where the sales weren't suspended, the accesses cancelled inside the states where there are no sales of new accesses cellulars.
| thousands | Net adds (States where sales weren't suspended) |
Cancellations (States where sales were suspended) |
Brazilian Net Adds |
| TIM | 103 |
-1.615 |
-1.512 |
| Claro | 154 |
-668 |
-513 |
| Oi | 300 |
-91 |
209 |
These cancellations were counted using month churn (from 1Q12) reported by each operator.
In this scenario, TIM would have presented net adds of -1.5 million cellulars in Jun/12 and Claro's of -0.5 million. Oi's impact is smaller.
The losses on month revenues by this reduction in the June's net adds could reach R$ 50 million for TIM, R$ 19 million for Claro and R$ 5 million for Oi. These estimations are based on the ARPU value for 1Q12 reported by each carrier.
As we can observe, the impact would be significative if the suspension lasts for 30 days.
TIM is the market share leader in four of the states where it was punished (Alagoas, Rio Grande do Norte, Ceará and Paraná). In June, the company led inside six of the nineteen areas where it was punished. Oi led in three of the five states where the sales were suspended.
Cellular growth in June
Brazil ended June counting 256.1 million mobile accesses and density of 130.4 cell./100 inhab. Net adds of 1.2 million cellular subscribers were the smallest for a month since February 2010.
 |
Net adds gotten in 2012 surpass the figures registered in 2011 in the months from January to April, but present accentuated fall in May and June. By this result, the net adds of the first semester of 2012 (13.9 million) are already smaller than the ones gotten in the first semester of 2011 (14.4 million).
The low growth shown in June may be repeated in July affected aggravated by the suspension of cellular sales determined by Anatel.
You could ask:
Send us your commentary! |
Click on: teleco@teleco.com.br Please let us know if you authorize the publication of your commentary.
Note: The opinions expressed in the published articles in this section are their authors' responsibility. |
