Brazil accumulated net adds of 15.7 million mobile accesses in the first eight months of the year (Jan-Aug/12), this number is 25.7% smaller than the amount accumulated in the same period of 2011 (21.1 million).
Despite the fact that the four main cellular operator in Brazil had shown reduction in their net adds, the biggest drop occurred at Claro.
TIM continues to lead in net adds accumulated in the year even though having a quantity 26.1% smaller than what was accumulated in the same period of 2011.
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Net adds gotten in the first four months of 2012 were superior than the ones registered in the same period of 2011, but they started to fall after May.
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The following factors have been pointed out as the causes for the drop in net adds:
The economy slowdown with low growth of GDP and of the families purchase power may have helped to reduce celllular growth, but it doesn't seems to be the decisive factor for this drop. Note that Pay TV, for example, net adds accumulated from Jan to Aug/12 (2.4 million) overtook the figure registered in the same perids of 2011 (1.9 million).
The suspension of cell phones sales of one operator in each states, as determined by Anatel, contributed in a decisive way for the drop in net adds observed in July, but it doesn't explains the reduction in net adds that occurred in the previous months.
High month churn, average of 3.8% in 2Q12, has contributed to reduce net adds. The fierce competition between operators has led to a constant change of carrier or even to change of "chips" inside its own network in search for the best price. In 2Q12, net adds fell, but sales (gross adds) didn't have the same performance (more details). This process leads operators to clean their client base in certain regions, contributing to turn month net adds into negative.
About the high density, Brazilian market can be really entering in a new phase, with one digit growth rate, like what happened in Russia and Argentina since 2009.
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No matter the causes, if we keep the trends of the last three months, Brazil will have in 2012 growth next to 10% and net adds about 25 million mobile accesses.
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The drop in net adds was bigger in prepaid. Net adds from Jan to Aug/12 (11.5 million) were 28.4% smaller than what was registered in the same period of 2011. TIM and Oi showed the biggest reductions.
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However, postpaid net adds in this period (4.2 million) also showed reduction (-17.1%) in relation to 2011.
Claro presented the biggest reduction in postpaid net adds, while Oi and TIM got growth.
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The drop in net adds wasn't uniform in all the Brazilian territory. Among the 67 local areas in which the country is divided, 16 presented net adds (from Jan-Aug/12) bigger than the number gotten in Jan-Aug/11.
Net adds from Jan-Aug
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