01/07/2013
What to monitor in 2013
After a year considered as regular for the Brazilian Telecom sector, the scenario is optimist about 2013. According to the poll launched by Teleco, 60% expect 3013 to be better or much better than 2012. The optimism is, however, smaller in comparison with the result registered one year ago, when this percentage reached 73%.
So we present below the main trends to be monitored in 2013.
- Cellular Growth
After reaching the density of more than 130 cell./100 inhab., Brazil is likely to continue to show in 2013 a reduction in cellular growth rate mainly inside prepaid segment, as what happened in the second semester of 2012. The competition may, however, remain strong by having the four main operators (Vivo, TIM, Claro and Oi) competing fiercely this market with a new player (Nextel 3G) that will break into the market.
- Growth of operator's data revenue
In 2013, mobile operators won't be able to count with the growth of cellular base as the main leverage to the growth of their revenue. Voice revenues may show fall in the growth rate pressed by the low prices of on net calls and the drop in interconnection revenue determined by Anatel. In face of this scenario, operators are likely to keep focusing data services stimulating Smartphones sales and expanding their 3G and 4G networks.
- Mobile Broadband Evolution (4G and 3G).
There's a big expectation about the beginning of 4G operations in Brazil and it's likely to be one of the hot themes in 2013. However, it may happen in a gradual way and having low adoption due to the high price of 4G smartphones. 3G will continue to be the main source to increase mobile broadband in Brazil. The migration of active GSM handsets, which still represent more than 70% of the accesses, to 3G may be accelerated in 2013, but 3G is likely to overtake GSM only in 2015.
- Quality Improvement
The request for improvement of services quality made by Anatel, Procon and users will continue to be strong in 2013. Being connected (voice and internet) all the time and anywhere is becoming a vital necessity for the society. Supply this demand is one of the challenges of this sector.
- Growth of Fixed Broadband and Pay TV
Fixed broadband will continue to grow in an annual rate of 20%. Pay TV, which increased 27% in 2012 due to DTH, is likely to keep the growth pace in 2013. Cable TV and IPTV may present bigger growth, stimulated by the new SeAC authorizations which started to be given by Anatel in the end of 2012.
- Expansion of Fiber Networks
The implementation of networks for high speed broadband access based on fiber (FTTH, FTTN, ....) may be accelerated in the main operators in 2013. The demand for high speeds increases and the arrival of 4G is one more factor to press fixed broadband to increase their speeds.
- Smartphones Growth
Despite of the drop in cell phones sales in Brazil in 2012, smartphones sales increased and this trend is likely to be kept in 2013. Smartphones represent already more than 40% of the cell phones sold in the world. The competition between suppliers will continue to be strong in 2013, with Nokia and RIM being more prepared to face Samsung and Apple.
- Mobile Payments
Mobile payments is the most promising service among the others arriving in the Brazilian market. The solution is mature and may start to gain volume in the world in 2013. It will be necessary to wait for the approval of the regulation prepared by the Banco Central.
- Anatel's Agenda
The regulation of the 700 MHz band for 4G and the use of Femtocells are some of the hot topics on Anatel's agenda. The agency will have to dedicate itself to implement the PGMC and present a systematic monitoring of services quality.
Brazil shows a consolidated scenario of Telecom players having three groups (Telefônica, América Móvil and Oi) answering for 70% of the total revenue of the sector and we don't expect big modifications in the competitive board in 2013. The main events to be monitored are:
You could ask:
- How will cellular growth be in 2012? Which company will lead this growth?
- How many 4G accesses will Brazil count in the end of 2012?
- Will there be growth in the implementation of fiber networks, including in the offer of FTTH?
- What changes in the market by the beginning of Nextel's 4G operations?
- Will cable TV have bigger growth in comparison with DTH in 2013?
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