July was (until now) the month registering the biggest cellular growth in 2013, by getting record net adds (for the year) inside prepaid and postpaid.
This result represents an inversion in the trajectory of drop in cellular growth in Brazil making the net adds accumulated in the last 12 months to be superior to 10 million mobile accesses.
The coming months will indicate whether July was the an inflection in the trajectory of drop, or whether prepaid will continue to oscillate, alternating positive and negative net adds.
However, eventually, what changed in Jul//13?
How we can observe in the graphic above, postpaid net adds have been stable between 600 and 800 thousand since Mar/13. So, it wasn't postpaid but prepaid the main responsible for the growth of total net adds in the month.
To better understand this dynamic we'll analyze what happened with the net adds gotten by each carrier.
Despite of having led cellular growth in July counting net adds of 483 thousand mobile accesses, TIM wasn't responsible for the record growth observed in the month. TIM's net adds in May and March 2013 were bigger than the ones observed in July.
Note that TIM's prepaid net adds TIM oscillate monthly and postpaid shows a slight trend toward growth.
In July, Vivo presented its best result in net adds along the year (389 thousand).
This result was gotten due to a significative reduction in the prepaid negative net adds registered by the operator in the month. Vivo is making readjustments in its prepaid base with reduction of the deadline to shut off inactive accesses and encourage the migration of clients from prepaid to postpaid.
Note that similar result was shown by Vivo in Apr/13. This month, however, had a reduction in TIM's net adds cycle, what didn't happen in July.
In other words, the coincidence of the net adds peaks showed by TIM and Vivo in July was the main factor to cause the record net adds observed in the month.
We can add to this the fact that July was also the month registering a peak in the net adds oscillation cycle of Claro and Oi, even though their net adds were smaller than in previous months.
Other market movements, such as migration from GSM to 3G, have smaller impact on cellular growth in Brazil.
Accesses via 3G handsets presented net adds of 3.5 million in July, while GSM base showed reduction of 2.6 million handsets. Claro is the leader in this process by having 47.6% of its accesses via handsets already migrated to 3G.
The same can be said about M2M net adds, 3G data terminals and 4G accesses that had Vivo as leader, like what happened already in the first semester of 2013. The highlight was net adds Vivo's M2M reaching 260 thousand accesses, performance that will hardly be repeated along the coming months, but help to explain the record postpaid net adds registered by the operators in the month.
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