How will mobile telephony in Brazil close 2013?
The growth hown by cellular in October indicates that, kept the trends observed in the 10 first months of 2013, Brazil is likely to end the year counting 273 million mobile accesses and density of 137 cell./100 inhabitants.
In Oct/13, net adds reached 1.7 million mobnile accesses, being 3 times superior to the 0.45 million registered in Oct/12. It indicates that 4Q13 may overtake the 2.9 million net adds gotten in 4Q12.
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Teleco projects net adds of 11 million mobile accesses for Brazil in 2013, what would correspond to a growth of 4.2% in the year.
This growth was bigger in postpaid which, by holding net adds of 8.8 million in 2013, is likely to end the year holding a base of about 60 million.
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Postpaid net adds in 2013 overtook 2012's in all the quarters of the year. The same didn't happen with prepaid net adds.
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October's prepaid net adds (757 thousands), superior to the 712 thousand registered in 4Q12, can indicate that prepaid net adds in 4Q13 will overtake, for the first time in 2013, the net adds of one quarter of 2012.
It's always possible, however, that operators make more restrict adjustments in their bases in the last two months of the year, driving prepaid to present negative net adds. Note that December's base is the reference to the payment of the fiscalization tariffs (FISTEL) for 2013.
TIM and Claro compete for the leadership in 2013's net adds. Claro is teh leader in prepaid net adds and TIM shows bigger equilibrium between prepaid and postpaid net adds.
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Vivo may stay in the third position considering the balance between the expressive postpaid net adds, that are likely lead the carrier to end the year holding market share close to 40% inside this segment, and prepaid negative net adds, segment in which the company can be overtaken by Claro still in 2013.
On the other hand, Oi is likely to end the year in the fourth position in net adds, in line with what happened in October.
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