The competition in local areas where postpaid can overtake prepaid
Postpaid participation in the total of mobile accesses in Brazil increased from 18.2% in 2011 to 24.7% in April/15.
We can't predict exactly when postpaid will be responsible for the majority of the mobile accesses in the country, but there are local areas where it can happen in the next two years.
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Among the ten Brazilian local areas where postpaid participation is bigger, we selected five that have registered the biggest growth accumulated in the first four months of 2015.
The main candidates to have postpaid participation bigger than 50% in the coming years are Campinas (19), São Paulo (11), Curitiba (41), Rio (21) and Vitoria (27).
M2M accesses are a important component of postpaid mobile accesses in some of these areas, as presented below in the analysis of the competition inside each of them.
Local Area 19: Campinas
Vivo and Claro are practically tied in the competition for the leadership in local area where is the biggest postpaid participation of the country (42.1%).
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Vivo overtook Claro by the end of 2014 and kept the leadership until April/15.
Claro's good performance inside area 19 is, mainly, result of M2M accesses which represented about 50% of the postpaid inside this local area. In Jan/15, Claro had 940 thousand M2M accesses M2M and Vivo counted 640 thousand.
In 2015, TIM is managing to increase the difference that separates it from Oi.
Local Area 11: São Paulo
Vivo leads inside the metropolitan region of São Paulo counting 5.1 million postpaid accesses and market share of 42.6%. Oi and Nextel compete for the fourth position.
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M2M accesses represent about 20% of the postpaid accesses in this local area.
Local Area 41: Curitiba
TIM leads inside local area of Curitiba by counting 624 thousand postpaid mobile accesses and 34% of market share.
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Claro conquered the second position due to its leadership in M2M accesses that represent about 60% of the postpaid accesses.
M2M mobile accesses represent about 30% of the postpaid accesses inside this local area.
Local Area 21: Rio de Janeiro
Vivo and Claro compete for the leadership inside the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro.
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Nextel overtook TIM and conquered the second position. Nextel's 4G operation in Rio de Janeiro contributed for this result.
M2M accesses represent about 7% of the postpaid accesses inside this local area.
Local Area 27: Vitória
Vivo is the absolute leader by holding 1.1 million postpaid accesses and 78.9% of the market share.
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Claro, TIM and Oi compete for the second position.
M2M accesses represent about 6% of the postpaid accesses inside this local area.
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